Olympic Basketball Preview: Group A - The USA and Everyone Else
It’s kind of crazy to think the Olympics start this week. However, here we are as the US gets ready for another gold medal run in basketball, we’ll take a look at all 12 teams competing in Rio. While everyone thinks it’ll be US vs Spain for the third consecutive time in the gold medal game, there are other teams to watch that can beat Spain.
For now we’ll start with Group A, which includes the US, France, Australia, China, Serbia and Venezuela. We’ll preview these teams in order of how I think they’ll finish.
The United States (FIBA Rank: 1)
Roster: Carmelo Anthony (New York Knicks), Harrison Barnes (Dallas Mavericks), Jimmy Butler (Chicago Bulls), DeMarcus Cousins (Sacramento Kings), Kevin Durant (Golden State Warriors), Paul George (Indiana Pacers), Draymond Green (Golden State Warriors), Kyrie Irving (Cleveland Cavaliers), DeAndre Jordan (Los Angeles Clippers), Kyle Lowry (Toronto Raptors), Klay Thompson (Golden State Warriors)
Outlook: We’ve talked about this team quite a bit, but they really are made to win gold yet again. We saw them absolutely dominate Nigeria, Venezuela, China and Argentina in warmup games the past two weeks and have incredible depth on the wing. The strategy for the US since K took over has been the same – which is shoot a lot of 3’s with the shortened 3-point line and then dominate the glass to go with trapping on a press. They’ll breeze through group play. One of the biggest things to watch for me though is if DeMar DeRozan can throw down a dunk comparable to Vince Carter in 2000. He’s tried his hardest to start a World War in the exhibition games (this from last night)
Best Player: Kevin Durant – I mean, no duh, right?
Most Important Player: DeMarcus Cousins – during the exhibition play, Boogie showed why he’s the best big man in the game right now. He has the ability to stretch the floor a little bit for his size and control the paint. The US will run 4 shooters around him, especially to start games with the likely starting 5 being Boogie, Kyrie, Klay, Durant and Melo. It wouldn’t shock me if Cousins leads the team in scoring thanks to being the most dominant big in the world.
Serbia (FIBA Rank: 6)
Roster: Stefan Bircevic, Bogdan Bogdanovic (Phoenix Suns), Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets), Stefan Jovic, Nikola Kalinic, Milan Macvan, Stefan Markovic, Nemanja Nedovic, Miroslav Raduljica, (K)Marko Simonovic, Vladimir Stimac, Milos Teodosic
Recent Olympics: Finished 11th in 2004, 6th in 2000 and won silver in 1996
Outlook: Serbia clinched its Olympic berth quite easily by beating Czech Republic and Puerto Rico by 55 points in one of the three qualifying tournaments this summer. There are some NBA names on this roster in Bogdanovic and Jokic, with Jokic being one of the shining young players in the NBA this year. This roster is deep though. If you watched them in the qualifying tournaments, they had no problem subbing like the US, but they do need Bogdanovic and Jokic out there. The biggest problem for Serbia though is the lack of depth in the frontcourt. Missing from the team are guys with NBA experience in Nemanja Bjelica and Nenad Kristic. Without them, USA can dominate the post, especially if they get Jokic in foul trouble. Serbia will likely try to go big against Team USA, by using Milan Macvan at the power forward spot. But, he has no chance trying to guard either Durant or Melo on the wing. The one thing this team can do though is score and shoot the ball. In the four games in the qualifying tournament, they had three guys shoot over 50% from 3, including Bogdanovic.
Best Player: Nikola Jokic – With a lack of depth up front, it’s important for him to play as well as he did for the Nuggets this past year. During the four qualifying games, he averaged 17.8 points per game while shooting 76% from the floor and grabbed nearly 8 rebounds a game.
Most Important Player: Milos Teodosic – He’s a name you don’t know unless you watch international hoops, but he’s one of the best point guards in the Olympics. He has the ability to play to the defense, meaning if he needs to be the third scorer for Serbia he can or if he needs to drive and dish, he’s more than capable. If he can take care of the ball, Serbia has a real chance to get into the gold medal game against the US.
France (FIBA rank: 5)
Roster: Tony Parker (San Antonio Spurs), Nicolas Batum (Charlotte Hornets), Nando De Colo, Boris Diaw (Utah Jazz), Antoine Diot, Mickael Gelabale, Rudy Gobert (Utah Jazz), Thomas Huertel, Charles Kahudi, Joffrey Lauvergne, Florent Pietrus, Kim Tillie
Recent Olympic Results: 6th in 2012, silver in 2000
Outlook: France snuck into the Olympics, having to qualify by beating Turkey and Canada in a qualification tournament just over a month ago and that was no easy task. This France team has a ton of talent, but unfortunately they are missing some key pieces, which could truly make them the second best team in the Olympics. France is missing Evan Fournier, Joakim Noah, Ian Mahinmi and Kevin Seraphin – all who would make this team that much better. But, with who France has they have a solid core in Parker, Batum, Diaw and Gobert. They can avoid the team USA press by playing two point guards in Parker and De Colo along with having Batum to help bring up the ball. Hell, even Diaw can handle the ball for his size and is a strong passer. The other thing France can do is spread the floor thanks to Diaw’s versatility. Expect to see France play with Gobert in the post and let Diaw do his thing of taking true power forwards off the dribble and beating them into the paint. The biggest key to France though will be avoiding Spain until the semifinals.
Best Player: Nicolas Batum – Batum has passed Parker as the best player in France as long as he doesn’t dick punch anyone in these Olympics. The shorter 3-point line will only help him and he’s a more than capable defender on the wing.
Most Important Player: Rudy Gobert – the Jazz big man is one of the best shot blockers in the NBA and will be important for France to battle some of the other bigs in this group. Remember the international rule of being able to grab the ball off the cylinder makes this game incredibly different, but something that will help Gobert and France.
Australia (FIBA Rank: 11)
Roster: David Anderson, Cameron Baristow, Aron Baynes (Detroit Pistons), Andrew Bogut (Dallas Mavericks), Ryan Broekhoff, Matthew Dellavedova (Milwaukee Bucks), Chris Goulding, Joe Ingles (Utah Jazz), Kevin Lisch, Damian Martin, Patty Mills (San Antonio Spurs), Brock Motum
Recent Olympic Results: 7th in 2012, 4th in 2000 and 1996
Outlook: There are a ton of names people know on this roster, but I’m just not sold on Australia. They should dominate the glass, especially since Bogut is playing and looked relatively good in the last exhibition game. Australia also has the ability to beat people by the long ball thanks to Mills and Delly. Expect to see a lot of pick-and-rolls when they have the ball in their hands with both players looking to attack or shoot off the dribble. So what’s my hold up? They have no athleticism on the wing and no one that can guard other wing players. The US will eat Australia alive with Klay, George, Melo and Durant. It’s a shame Ben Simmons and Dante Exum aren’t playing for Australia, because you could at least put them on some wing players to try and slow them down. Truthfully missing those two players will likely cost them a shot at a medal as they’ll probably end up playing Spain in the first round of the knockout round.
Best Player: Patty Mills – He’s the one player that can go get his own bucket on this team. Mills obviously can shoot the hell out of the ball as we’ve seen with him in San Antonio but can also be the main ball handler or shift to the shooting guard spot with Delly playing point.
Most Important Player: Joe Ingles – Ingles is the only stretch-4 type player on the roster and will have to play a lot of minutes. Australia’s depth at guard and in the post will allow for some guys to get breaks and deal with fouls, but Ingles will have to lead this team in minutes. The Jazz use him as point forward at times, so don’t be surprised to see the ball in his hands as well, especially if Mills or Delly are struggling.
China (FIBA Rank: 14)
Roster: Ding Yanyuhang, Guo Ailun, Li Gen, Li Muhao, Sui Ran, Wang Zhelin, Yi Jianlian, Zhai Xiaochuan, Zhao Jiwei, Zhou Peng, Zhou Qi, Zou Yuchen
Recent Olympic Results: 12th in 2012, 8th in 2008, 2004 and 1996
Outlook: We got a sneak peek at China thanks to two exhibition games and needless to say this team isn’t that good. They have a ton of size thanks to four 7-footers, but that’s about it. Against Venezuela and Australia, China might be able to compete thanks to that alone, but they will get boatraced again by USA and likely Serbia and France. During the exhibition games we saw how China struggles with dribbling and getting into the lane, especially from the guards. Expect teams to throw a lot of presses and traps at their guards and make them try to beat them that way.
Best Player: Yi Jianlian – For as much as we make fun of Yi for being a bust in the NBA – though he still dominated that chair – he’s not a bad player. He has the ability to step out and shoot and has the size to play in the post. He’ll impress people again with his ability to play at a high level.
Most Important Player: Zhou Qi – The recent draft pick by the Rockets can protect the rim, but they need him to be the second player to go with Yi. If China can get both Yi and Zhou Qi playing at a high level they might be able to compete with some of the middle teams in this group.
Venezuela (FIBA Rank: 22)
Roster: Nestor Colmenares, John Cox, David Cubillan, Gregory Echenique, Windi Graterol, Heissler Guillent, Dwight Lewis, Miguel Marriaga, Anthony Perez, Miguel Ruiz, Gregory Vargas, Jose Vargas
Recent Olympic Results: Venezuela hasn’t made the Olympics since 1992
Outlook: This team is a huge surprise to be here, especially when you look at that roster and realize they are only missing the pride of Gary Williams in Greives Vasquez. Venezuela qualified by winning the FIBA Americas last year, thanks to a controversial foul call against Canada in the semifinals. Venezuela recently lost by 35 to the US in an exhibition game, but it showed what Venezuela will try to do this summer. They will try to ugly the game up. They’ll foul you so you can’t get the crowd going. They won’t score a lot. They’ll run zone and some junk defenses. They also won’t win. I expect this team to only compete with China, but would bet they don’t win a game in Rio.
Best Player: John Cox – Cox led the team in scoring in Canada during the FIBA Americas and will likely do the same in Rio.
Most Important Player: Gregory Vargas – Vargas has been on Venezuela for quite some time now and was clearly the leader on the floor during the FIBA Americas. He’ll have to be the second-best player consistently if Venezuela wants to compete at all in Rio.